VOLUME No: 59 Issue No:3

Washington, D.C. - March 26, 2004

Polls Show President Bush and Sen. Kerry Nearly Tied

In a poll released earlier this week by Zogby International, Senator John F. Kerry (D-MA) leads incumbent Republican President Bush 48 percent to 46 percent. A separate poll shows their standings when Ralph Nader, an Independent candidate, is added. The results of that poll are: Kerry – 46 percent, Pres. Bush – 46 percent, and Nader – 3 percent.

In the states that Pres. Bush won during the last election (called ‘red' states); Bush leads Kerry 53 percent to 40 percent. In the states that Al Gore won in the same election (called ‘blue' states), Kerry is ahead 56 percent to 38 percent.

The poll shows that 51 percent of those polled would prefer to have President Bush in office if a major terrorist attack were to hit the United States again, compared to Kerry at 40 percent. Thirty percent named the top issue facing the country as the condition of the economy and jobs.

A related poll released Wednesday by the Associated Press (AP) shows President Bush as backed by 46 percent of their voters, as opposed to Kerry's 43 percent and Nader's 5 percent. The poll also found that less than 30 percent of those voters strongly support the candidate they voted for.

The poll revealed the strengths and weaknesses of both President Bush and Sen. Kerry. While Pres. Bush is weak on job creation, voters believe he is the better candidate to protect the country (58 percent to 35 percent). Pres. Bush also leads Kerry, 60 percent to 32 percent, on who voters believed was the strongest leader.

Sen. Kerry did not score as well as President Bush did on issues of national security, but he did score higher on the issue of creating jobs: 53 percent to 37 percent. This is extremely important, as the poll found that the top issue given by the voters was job creation, followed by national security.

The Zogby, International poll was conducted March 17-March 19, and consisted of 1065 likely voters chosen at random. The AP poll was conducted March 19-21, and consisted of 784 registered voters.

Pledge of Allegiance' Under Scrutiny by U.S. Supreme Court

The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in a landmark appeals case known as ‘ Elk Grove Unified School District v. Newdow, 02-1624' on Wednesday. Dr. Newdow, the father of a 9-year old girl who is a student in the Elk Grove School District in California, sued the school last year claiming that the phrase ‘under God' in the Pledge of Allegiance was unconstitutional and violated his daughter's religious beliefs.

Dr. Newdow, who is a non-practicing lawyer as well as a doctor, argued his own case before the Supreme Court. He won his case last year before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit in San Francisco , which ruled that the statement ‘under God' made the pledge a ‘profession of religious belief' and therefore violated constitutional laws against prayer in public schools. Dr. Newdow, an atheist, believes the statement ‘under God' violates his daughter's understanding of his personal philosophy. He reasons that his daughter is being told that her father is ‘wrong' by the government because it refutes his belief in no God.

The girl's mother, Sandra Banning, a born-again Christian, has custody of the child. She wants her daughter to have a religious upbringing, and is opposed to the lawsuit. The Supreme Court must decide if Dr. Newdow has a right to sue on behalf of his daughter when he does not have official custody of her, and especially because the parent who does have custody does not consent to the lawsuit.

The Pledge of Allegiance has had a long history of changes. It was first written in 1892, and did not include ‘under God' in the original version. In 1943, in a lawsuit brought against the government by Jehovah's Witnesses (a religion that bans saluting the flag), the Supreme Court ruled that the Pledge was to be non-compulsory, meaning that people had the option of choosing not to recite it. To distinguish itself from ‘Godless' (communist) governments during the Cold War, Congress added the phrase in 1954.

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia recused himself at the bequest of Dr. Newdow. Justice Scalia had made highly critical statements of the ruling last year. The Supreme Court's decision is expected sometime in the summer.

President Bush's Immigration Proposal Meets Opposition in House

Both Republicans and Democrats in the House of Representatives met President Bush's new immigration proposals without a great deal of enthusiasm. The proposal was discussed at a meeting of the House Judiciary Subcommittee for Immigration, Border Security, and Claims this week.

The Chairman of the subcommittee, Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN), stated that close to 12 million Americans were in danger of loosing their jobs to immigrant workers. The job losses would most likely affect those working in the construction, service, and minimum-wage sectors.

The Democratic party's criticism came mainly in the form of failing to include provisions that would aid the immigrants in becoming permanent residents or citizens. Some Democrats, like Rep. Linda Sanchez (CA), believe that immigrants currently residing in the U.S. should have the option of becoming viable citizens or legal residents.

There were a few Republicans defending the President's new proposals. Their main argument was that illegal immigration was unlikely to cease or slow down, and that many industrial sectors, such as the food industry, needed the labor that immigrants provide.

Culture Wars' Present New Issues for the 2004 Elections

Though the two most important issues facing this year's presidential candidates will undoubtedly be job creation and national security, emerging cultural issues could play an integral part on how candidates are perceived by the American population.

Current issues under public scrutiny, such as the Pledge of Allegiance and homosexual marriage rights, evoke strong feelings in many sectors of American society. Catering to these sectors, especially the majorities could potentially make or break a candidate.

Democrats are aware of this, and are concerned that these ‘culture wars' will ultimately end up helping President Bush's re-election chances. They feel that Republicans portray these minor social issues to be more important than they really are in an attempt to cover up the fact that the administration hasn't accomplished anything of real significance.

The Bush campaign agrees that the ‘culture wars' will help re-elect President Bush. A senior campaign official said that “the Democrats' position on almost all of these issues is anti-majoritarian”. They feel that by capitalizing on the opinions, views, and morals of the majority, it will render President Bush victorious in the election.