ELECTION WATCH

October 8, 2004

New Voters Turn Out In Record Numbers

Voters in Pennsylvania , Ohio , Oregon , and other swing states came in record numbers to register to vote in centers across the country this past week as the deadline for new voters approached. Records were broken as millions of voters registered to vote in the election in November. Some centers ran out of forms as demand surpassed the estimates registration organizers came up with. The record-numbers of new voter registrants are attributed to campaigns by grassroots and partisan organizations trying to gain an advantage for their candidate in November. In crucial swing-states any one of these votes could decide the election.

Recent Polls for Crucial Swing States:

Post-Debate Rhetoric

The Presidential candidates have continued to trade blows against one another ever since Jim Lehrer left Florida and the candidates returned to the road. This week, Senator Kerry echoed his criticisms of Bush's handling of the war, seizing on the comments of former U.S. Administrator Paul Bremer and doubts surrounding U.S. preparedness for a long-term conflict. Bush countered by trying to turn attention away from the Iraqi conflict to Kerry's record on national security and domestic issues. The Vice-Presidential debate echoed many of the themes of the first debate, except for the fact that Cheney won. By a six-point margin, Cheney edged out John Edwards in a close and sometimes contemptuous debate surrounding foreign policy, healthcare, and the economy. The next presidential debate is scheduled for Friday, October 8, 2004 in Missouri .

Kerry Up After Debate

The election pollsters have seen a wide array of numbers in the past two weeks. Prior to the September 30, 2004 debate between President Bush and Senator Kerry, Bush enjoyed a double-digit lead over Kerry in most tracking polls. The President's success and his post-convention bubble burst last week however when Kerry publicly defeated the President during the debate. Since then the polls have evened out, many showing a statistical tie, and the Bush campaign has been put on the defensive in Mid-Western and West Coast states where they had made inroads since the end of August.

Here are the latest polls

Rasmussen (likely voters) October 7

BUSH/CHENEY: 47.8%

Kerry/Edwards: 46.7%

Reuters/Zogby (likely voters) October 4-6

BUSH/CHENEY: 46%

Kerry/Edwards: 44%

Nader/Camenjo: 1.8%

Associated Press (likely voters) October 4-6

KERRY/EDWARDS: 50%

Bush/Cheney: 46%

ABC News (likely and registered voters) October 4-6

BUSH/CHENEY: 49%

Kerry/Edwards: 47%

Nader/Camenjo: 1%

Washington Post (likely and registered voters) October 3-5

BUSH/CHENEY: 49%

Kerry/Edwards: 47%

Nader/Camenjo: 1%

Pew Research Center (likely voters) October 1-3

BUSH/CHENEY: 48%

Kerry/Edwards: 41%

Nader/Camenjo: 2%

CNN/USA Today/Gallup (likely voters) October 1-3

Bush/Cheney: 49%

Kerry/Edwards: 49%

Nader/Camenjo: 1%

New Reuters/Zogby Polls

According to the newest Reuters/Zogby poll, Kerry and Bush are locked in a statistical tie for the popular vote. Pollster James Zogby said the election is a contest between “two equal-sized warring nations,” because he found that the candidates are supported by opposing demographics and sections. For instance, Kerry leads the popular vote in both the East and West while Bush is dominant in the South. In the Central-Great Lakes region of the country, however, both candidates have 43% of the vote. Among teenagers and twenty-somethings Kerry has a large lead in the polls (56%-31%) but with 30-49 year olds, Bush leads by 16%. Self-identified investors support Bush 51%-42% as well as those currently serving in the military. Married voters also support Bush while Kerry has a 27% advantage among single voters. Interestingly enough the President enjoys 90% support from his party while only 76% of Democrats support John Kerry. Although Kerry leads Bush by 5% among Independent Voters the large block of undecided voters are going to play a big role in the remaining month of the election.

Coffee Preference Becomes New Polling Tool

Coffee drinkers made their voice heard this week as a new poll showed that coffee drinkers are partisan voters. 7/11 Convenience stores have staged a poll all season-long that lets coffee drinkers vote with their mugs instead of their hands. By buying a coffee featuring either the President's or Senator Kerry's likeness, coffee aficionados cast a vote for their favorite candidate. Among all coffee drinkers the candidates were tied but the black and cream and sugar categories showed that black drinkers like Bush and sweetened drinkers like Kerry. If coffee is any indication of voter preference then we'll have a close contest in November.

Penn, Shoen, and Berland (coffee drinkers) Fall 2004

All coffee drinkers

Bush/Cheney: 44%

Kerry/Edwards: 44%

Cream/Sugar Coffee

KERRY/EDWARDS: 50%

Bush/Cheney: 36%

Black Coffee

BUSH/CHENEY: 48%

Kerry/Edwards: 42%